Newcastle United have six games to save their Premier League spot
Newcastle United’s fight against relegation faces a crucial Christmas | The numbers show just how far the Magpies really are from safety.
Still in search of their first win of the season, Newcastle face a run of difficult games book-ended by two fixtures that the Magpies will focus on for their first and second wins of the season: relegation rivals Burnley (H), and an Everton (A) side depleted by injuries and in poor form.
In between, however, they face Leicester (A), Liverpool (A), Manchester City (H), and Manchester United (H).
It wouldn’t be disrespectful to suggest Newcastle will struggle to pick up any points from those latter fixtures on their current form.
This Christmas period, with all its extra fixtures, is crunch-time to every club in the country, but Newcastle need this period to stay in touch with survival.
Visualising their performance so far shows just how far Newcastle are from safety, even if they’re only six points off Watford (currently in 17th) right now.
Plotted on all the graphs below, we can see the average points needed per game to finish at a common safety net: 37 points.
On the first graph belowwe can see Newcastle’s current performance against that target.
And next, we can see where they could be if they pick up six points in the Christmas period.
Six points would bring them much closer to that Survival Line, but it still leaves a long road ahead. And the data shows what’s at stake if Christmas is a crisis.
The next graph below shows the points per game that Newcastle will need to achieve to reach survival by the end of the season if they only take three points at Christmas.
They would need to produce something in the region of 1.4–1.6 points per game to enjoy a sixth consecutive Premier League season.
For context, if Newcastle managed that form for an entire season, they would finish comfortably in the upper mid table, possibly eyeing up a push for a European spot.
Finally, below we have the points earned by lowest three teams currently outside of the relegation zone (at time of writing).
That’s Watford (17), Southampton (16), and Leeds United (15). Newcastle needs to overtake at least one of these teams for survival.
As you can see from both charts, a steep climb in performance is required for Eddie Howe’s men to get back on pace. Not making the most of the next six games all but dooms them to the Championship, barring some miracle signings in January.
No doubt it’s grim reading for the fans who already feel they’ve endured enough as supporters of a club the size, stature, and income of Newcastle United. But where there’s hope there must still be endeavour.
It’s very difficult, yes, but it’s not impossible. A strong showing in the December period could inspire a few key signings to join in January.
Especially if Newcastle outperform expectations and take points off the higher-placed teams. Football is, after all, a sport where momentum means great deal.
Christmas could spell doom for Newcastle in the Premier League, or it could be the start of a recovery that marches them out of the drop zone and starts their new chapter with a storied survival.
Whichever way the Mags go, this Christmas is absolutely the make-or-break period for Newcastle’s season, and could have a big impact on their immediate future under the PIF.
